The funding picture
Across the 2,405 credit unions above $50.0M in assets, 397 — 16.5% — carry a funding-need flag as of Q1 2026: loaned up at or above an 85% loan-to-share ratio, with either thin cash or deposits shrinking year over year. That combination is what turns a balance sheet from a lender into a borrower.
| Measure | Median | 75th percentile | 90th percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loan-to-share | 74.2% | 86.0% | 93.4% |
| Cash / assets | 9.6% | 13.5% | 18.3% |
| Borrowings / assets | 0.0% | 1.0% | 5.4% |
| Liquidity-stress score | 17 | 28 | 42 |
The two-sided market this creates
A funding-constrained balance sheet and a cash-rich one are the two halves of the same trade. The panel sizes both sides:
| Role | Institutions | Share | Estimated dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seller — loans to place | 141 | 5.9% | $17.1B participation supply |
| Buyer — cash to deploy | 335 | 13.9% | $8.5B investable surplus |
| Balanced | 1,929 | 80.2% | — |
Supply is loans above a 90% loan-to-share book; surplus is cash above a 10%-of-assets working buffer. Both are estimates of capacity, not of intent — an institution with $8.5B of headroom across the buy side is not committed to deploying any of it. What the number bounds is the size of the conversation.
Stress by asset tier
| Asset tier | Institutions | Funding-need flagged | Share of tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| $50M-$100M | 577 | 34 | 5.9% |
| $100M-$500M | 1,070 | 136 | 12.7% |
| $500M-$1B | 284 | 72 | 25.4% |
| $1B-$10B | 450 | 147 | 32.7% |
| >$10B | 24 | 8 | 33.3% |
Where funding pressure is concentrated
| State | Institutions | Funding-need flagged | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA | 69 | 23 | 33.3% |
| ID | 21 | 7 | 33.3% |
| AR | 16 | 5 | 31.2% |
| WI | 65 | 19 | 29.2% |
| UT | 28 | 8 | 28.6% |
| WA | 61 | 16 | 26.2% |
| FL | 80 | 19 | 23.8% |
| IA | 38 | 8 | 21.1% |
| LA | 48 | 10 | 20.8% |
| VA | 59 | 12 | 20.3% |
| SD | 15 | 3 | 20.0% |
| ND | 15 | 3 | 20.0% |
What changed this quarter
The funding-need count moved from 510 to 397 (-113 institutions). Participation supply on the sell side moved from $20.9B to $17.1B; investable surplus on the buy side from $6.6B to $8.5B.
A role flip — an institution crossing from buyer to seller or back — is the single most actionable event on this screen, because it means a counterparty that was not in the market last quarter is in it now.
How the score is built
Liquidity stress blends five components at published weights: loan-to-share, cash as a share of assets, reliance on borrowings, deposit runoff year over year, and the quarter-over-quarter direction of cash. The funding-need flag is a separate rule, not a threshold on the score, so an institution can score moderately and still flag.
This post reports the system. It names no institution, by design — the counts and distributions here are the free half, and the ranked, named, exportable list underneath them is what a subscription opens.
Caveats
Every figure above is a model estimate computed from the quarterly panel as of the quarter named at the top of this post. Scores are not investment, credit or merger advice, and nothing here is a recommendation about any institution. The scorecards, their published weights and their known limitations are set out in the disclosures.