The U.S. credit-union system in Q1 2026: size, concentration and credit quality
4,336 credit unions, $2.5T in assets and 147,047,527 members as of Q1 2026. Concentration, growth, credit quality and capital.
Research
What the quarterly panel says
Quarterly analysis of U.S. credit unions — merger pressure, funding runway and vendor buying intent — computed from the panel behind the CUSignals scores. Every figure below is reproducible from the panel it was computed on, and every post names the quarter it was computed in. Subscribe by RSS.
Liquidity Radar: 397 credit unions carrying a funding-need flag, Q1 2026
As of Q1 2026, 397 of 2,405 credit unions above $50.0M (16.5%) are loaned up with thin cash, against $8.5B of surplus on the other side.
Merger Radar: 945 credit unions in the elevated band, Q1 2026
As of Q1 2026, 945 of 4,336 U.S. credit unions (21.8%) score in the Elevated or High merger-susceptibility band, with the movers since last quarter.
Vendor demand across the credit-union system, Q1 2026
Superseded. These are counts of a buying-propensity scorecard that was later tested against announced vendor adoptions and did not rank them.
Method & validation7 min read
How credit union merger prediction actually works — and how to tell if a model is any good
Merger susceptibility is a scorecard, not a crystal ball. What a balance sheet says before a credit union merges, and why only out-of-time validation counts.
Liquidity & funding5 min read
The loan-to-share ratio, read properly: what it says about a credit union's next twelve months
Loan-to-share is the most quoted and least understood ratio on a credit union balance sheet. What it measures, why 85% is the line, and what to read beside it.
News & commentary2 min read
Credit union mergers in 2026: a $21 billion Florida deal, and the pattern underneath
A $1.4B credit union merging into a $19.2B one is not a distress story. It is the shape most 2026 credit union mergers take — and what a watch list misses.
Vendor relationships6 min read
Reading buying intent off a balance sheet: how a credit union tells you what it needs before the RFP
Corrected. We argued balance-sheet movement precedes a software purchase closely enough to rank buying intent. We tested that in 2026 and it did not hold.
News & commentary1 min read
Credit union liquidity at mid-2026: strong in aggregate, uneven underneath
The industry closed the first half with an 11.43% net worth ratio and 11.7% of assets in cash. Aggregates that healthy are where the outliers hide.
News & commentary2 min read
Credit unions buying banks: the 2026 pace, and why the deal count misleads
22 deals in 2024, 16 in 2025, at least five by late July 2026. The count is falling and the driver behind it has not — because the count measures seller supply.
News & commentary1 min read
Auto delinquency is still the credit-quality story of 2026
Credit unions charged off $1.48B of auto paper in Q1 2026 and modifications hit a record. The stress is concentrated, which is what makes it findable.
News & commentary1 min read
Loan participations in 2026: a supply problem dressed as a demand problem
Buyers compete for the same high-quality credit union paper while sellers hold back. In that market the work is finding a counterparty, not clearing a price.
News & commentary2 min read
CUSOs are becoming the distribution channel for credit union technology
Two CUSO launches inside three days in February, each built by a credit union with a vendor. For fintechs selling into this market, the channel just changed.
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