Topic

Method & validation

How the scores are built, how they are tested out-of-time, what they cannot do, and the reasoning behind each published weight.

Method & validationAugust 21, 20267 min read

How credit union merger prediction actually works — and how to tell if a model is any good

Merger susceptibility is a scorecard, not a crystal ball. What a balance sheet says before a credit union merges, and why only out-of-time validation counts.

The screen behind this topic

The posts above report what the whole system did. The screen reports which named institutions did it, ranked, filterable by state, peer group and asset tier, and exportable.

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